Fed expected to hold interest rates steady, defying pressure from Trump

(WASHINGTON) — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will announce its latest decision setting the level of interest rates, just days after President Donald Trump called on the central bank to lower them.

Investors widely expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady, putting the central bank on a potential collision course with Trump. A longstanding norm of independence typically insulates the central bank from direct political interference.

A decision to maintain the current level of interest rates would pause a series of three consecutive interest rate cuts imposed by the Fed over the final months of 2024.

The Fed indicated last month that it would cut interest rates at a slower pace than it had previously forecast, however, pointing to a bout of resurgent inflation. That forecast sent stock prices plummeting, though markets have broadly recovered the losses.

Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of more than 9% in June 2022, but price increases remain nearly a percentage point higher than the Fed’s target rate of 2%.

During a virtual address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week, Trump demanded a drop in interest rates after calling for a reduction of oil prices set by a group of nations known as OPEC, which includes Saudi Arabia.

The prospect of low oil prices will enable the Fed to dial back its fight against inflation and bring down interest rates, Trump said.

“I’m going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil,” Trump said, later adding: “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately.”

The U.S. does not belong to OPEC, nor does the president play a role in the organization’s decisions regarding the price of oil sold by its member states.

Several past presidents have sought to influence the Fed’s interest rate policy, including Trump, who repeatedly spoke out in favor of low interest rates during his first term.

On the campaign trail in August, Trump said a U.S. president should have a role in setting interest rates.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a defiant tone in November when posed with the question of whether he would resign from his position if asked by Trump.

“No,” Powell told reporters assembled at a press conference in Washington, D.C., blocks away from the White House.

When asked whether Trump could fire or demote him, Powell stated: “Not permitted under the law.”

The Fed retreated in its fight against inflation over the final months of last year, lowering interest rates by a percentage point. Still, the Fed’s interest rate remains at a historically high level of between 4.25% and 4.5%.

Last month, Powell said the central bank may proceed at a slower pace with future rate cuts, in part because it has now lowered interest rates a substantial amount.

Powell also said a recent resurgence of inflation influenced the Fed’s expectations, noting that some policymakers considered uncertainty tied to potential policy changes under Trump.

“It’s common-sense thinking that when the path is uncertain, you get a little slower,” Powell said. “It’s not unlike driving on a foggy night or walking around in a dark room full of furniture.”