GDP report set to provide snapshot of economy ahead of midterm elections

Fresh data to be released on Thursday is set to provide the latest snapshot of the United States economy, just days before the midterm elections.

The report, which will detail gross domestic product over a three-month period ending in September, will arrive as the U.S. weathers a monthlong surge of inflation.

In response to rising prices, a key long-term Treasury rate has jumped in recent months as investors feared price increases would eat away at their returns. The rise in bond yields has pushed up rates for loans like credit cards and mortgages, threatening to worsen the financial crunch.

Still, the economy has proven resilient by some measures. Hiring has continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace, while unemployment has stayed at a low level by historical standards.

The economy is expected to have expanded at an annualized pace of 3.1% in the third quarter, which would mark an acceleration from 2.2% annualized GDP growth in the previous quarter. The anticipated performance in the third quarter would also outpace a 2.5% annualized rate recorded over the first three months of this year.

A surge in spending on artificial intelligence has helped boost the U.S. economy in recent quarters. Many of the nation’s largest companies have poured funds into the chips and data centers necessary to operate AI.

Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh voiced optimism about U.S. economic performance, even as he acknowledged the challenge posed by elevated inflation.

“Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace. While uncertainty remains, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient,” Warsh said.

An acceleration of price increases this year has posed a challenge for Fed officials tasked with containing inflation. The central bank raised interest rates a quarter of a percentage point last month in an effort to battle back price woes. The move marked the first rate increase in three years.

On Wednesday, the Fed opted to leave rates unchanged as they await further economic data.

Policymakers may lose patience as they weigh whether the current level of interest rates is high enough to ease price hikes. The odds of a quarter-point rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in December are pegged at about 85%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.

Another potential rate increase would mean pressing the brakes harder on the economy, in turn risking sluggish growth and risk slowing the job market further.

Since Warsh took the helm of the Fed in May, he has repeatedly vowed to dial back inflation.

Prices increased 3.7% in September compared to a year earlier, putting the inflation rate more than a percentage point above the Fed’s target level of 2%, government data showed.

“It’s our responsibility to get inflation down,” Warsh said on Wednesday.